Notre Dame and Penn State are set for the College Football Playoff Orange Bowl semifinal with a shot at the national title matchup on the line. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

Penn State was unable to corral Oregon’s offense in the Big Ten Championship though, allowing 496 total yards while dropping a 45-37 decision to the then undefeated Ducks. The Nittany Lions eviscerated SMU in the first round of the CFP Playoff,

Notre Dame got here by topping Georgia in the CFP quarterfinals at the Sugar Bowl, a game that was delayed one day because of the truck attack in New Orleans. Penn State got its semifinal slot by topping Boise State at the Fiesta Bowl two days earlier.