Inflation, tariffs
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Trump announces trade deal with Indonesia, 19% tariff
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While Tuesday's focus was on the tariff-related inflation hit to Treasuries, it's been a rough week for government bonds everywhere - especially in Japan as long-term yields there hit new highs this week ahead of the July 20 upper house election and related fiscal policy worries.
It's a trove of information for portfolio managers and macro-watchers to gauge, and trade policy news headlines are likely to continue breaking. On July 9, President Trump announced a surprise 50% levy on copper imports, followed by a steep 50% duty on Brazil. 1 Together, it put the materials sector in focus.
US wholesale inflation was muted in June, signaling that price pressures might not be building for producers and manufacturers.
Inflation is up, stocks are down, and more tariffs are on their way. Trump wants interest rates to come down but the direction of travel is making it less likely that the Fed will deliver the cuts he wants. It’s not clear whether Trump can extract himself from the policy cycle he has created.
The Indian rupee fell on Wednesday as the latest U.S. inflation report showed that tariffs were beginning to feed into prices, weakening bets on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which lifted U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
Consumer prices rose faster than in May, a potential sign that companies are starting to pass tariff costs on to consumers.
Markets aren’t acting like this is a reality, however. Benchmark 2-year U.S. Treasury note yields rose just two basis points following the inflation release, to 3.946%, and 10-year paper is holding at 4.475%. Stocks are also trading at the highest levels on record.
1don MSN
Inflation in June showed scattered signs of rising costs tied to the Trump tariffs, but Americans simply aren’t paying sharply higher prices because of U.S. trade wars. Here’s four things we learned from the latest consumer price index.