History suggests that dismal prophecies regarding the impact of great technological advances rarely come to pass. Yet, as many occupations will indeed vanish with the advent of AI as the new General ...

We explore how socio-economic background shapes academia, collecting the largest dataset of U.S. academics’ backgrounds and research output. Individuals from poorer backgrounds have been severely ...

This paper explores past episodes of technological disruption in the US labor market, with the goal of learning lessons about the likely future impact of artificial intelligence (AI). We measure ...

Younger entrepreneurs are disadvantaged by traditional loan underwriting, which relies heavily on personal credit scores. With data from three fintech companies, we show that incorporating timely ...

We investigate these dynamics for a food-as-medicine program to treat diabetes, where eligibility required elevated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Both treatment and control groups experienced significant ...

Standard deficit accounting neglects the growth dividend: the amount by which annual GDP growth shrinks the debt-GDP ratio. America's growth dividend has more than doubled since the Great Recession ...

Researchers cannot definitively interpret what the framers of the United States Constitution had in mind when they wrote of the general Welfare. Nevertheless, welfare economics can contribute to ...

We exploit a unique corpus of over 1,400 life narratives of older Americans collected by a team of writers during the 1930s. We combine detailed human readings with large language models (LLMs) to ...

Any fiscal path is sustainable if future fiscal policy responds sufficiently to high deficits. Previous work found that Congress reduced the deficit during 1984-2003 when projected deficits rose. We ...

This chapter examines the multifaceted interactions between top digital platforms and technology ventures across capital, labor, innovation, and product markets. Exploring how venture investments, ...

To assess these tradeoffs, we estimate a dynamic model of residential solar adoption and system sizing in California using household-level data on solar irradiance, electricity consumption, and ...

How Do Researchers Become Affiliated Scholars? NBER affiliates are selected through a rigorous and competitive process that begins with a call for nominations each February. Program directors, with ...